We often make predictions, but how often do we go back to
see how accurate they were? Alexis did me a solid this morning by reminding me
of
this blog post that I responded to way back in 2012. I am pretty sure that wasn’t Alexis’
intention, but let’s treat it as if it were.
My base prediction was:
It
wasn’t the fault of fans that a toxic atmosphere was created, nor is it the
fault of fans that 4e wasn’t well-received. Nor will the success or failure of
D&D Next be due to anything other than the success or failure of WotC to
put out a good product, market that product well, and undo to whatever extent
they are able the ill-will their handling of the 4e release created.
And
they have definitely taken some steps in the right direction, although I think
that the NDAs for the beta playtest are a really bad idea (not required by most
recent rpgs, including Pathfinder and Dungeon Crawl Classics, despite Mike
Mearls’ claim to the contrary), and I don’t think 5e will fly without the OGL.
The
systems that are doing well right now have the right combination of “good
system + goodwill”, and I don’t think Hasbro is going to allow WotC the leeway
needed to recreate the goodwill that was seen with the advent of 3e.
The rest of the
discussion is actually, I think, worth reading. You will notice quite a bit of “IMHO”
and “I think”, and this is largely because, as is obvious, no one can really be
so sure what the future holds!
(1) The
success or failure of D&D Next (now 5e) is the result of a combination of
the product and of the goodwill WotC can generate.
If comments from Mike
Mearls are anything to go by, 5e is a real success, and Hasbro is happy that
target numbers have been reached. I doubt that anyone is going to claim that
this is the result of “toxic fans” or a lack of good will towards WotC. In
fact, between the time that I wrote my responses in the blog post and the
release of 5e, WotC went out of its way to address the ill will generated with
the 4e release strategy.
It is of interest to me
that Mike Mearls continues to hedge in relation to the OGL, or what licensing
5e will eventually have. This suggests rather strongly that, despite 5e
materials being created right now under the OGL, the system will have a
different licensing arrangement. A return to the OGL would have been announced
early, because it would generate interest and goodwill. On the other hand, by deferring the question,
WotC can hope to build up enough interest and goodwill related to the system
itself that, whatever the eventual licensing, people will be too invested to
quit.
And that was, AFAICT,
the initial scheme: Play it for a year,
and then we’ll tell you the details about the licensing. Maybe.
(2) The NDA
was a bone-headed move.
The NDA did was prevent
prolific and prominent bloggers from discussing D&D Next explicitly. It was
violated almost immediately, and anyone who wanted them could easily obtain the
playtest materials.
But, in this case,
perhaps that was the point. By making these materials appear hard to obtain
(and that clandestinely), WotC may well have raised the interest in 5e in a way
that an open playtest would not have.
(3) Hasbro
will not allow the leeway needed to give 5e the goodwill seen with 3e’s
release.
The jury’s still out on
this. Certainly, that 5e is a better system than 3e or 4e has been touted
regularly on various blogs and forums. Equally certainly, renewing access to
early editions in PDF (and sometimes print) formats has generated a lot of
goodwill. There is certainly a sense that WotC is listening.
As an obvious corollary, if 5e is wildly successful, that will be
because of Wizards, not because of the fans. They will have produced and
marketed a good product, and overcome the ill-will generated around the release
of 4e. It will be an achievement.
Yes, I said that. So
far, WotC does seem to have managed that achievement. In part, I suspect, by
postponing the licensing announcements until player investment is heavy.
For 5e to be “D&D
Next” it needs to feel like coming home…like a game that DM’s can take ownership
of. It needs to not feel like a game you play only at the whims of WotC’s legal
department.
I still hold this to be
true. Whether or not DMs will feel that ownership once they discover the
licensing terms is a whole ‘nother matter.
Well, I already know my
opinions. Please “hijack” this blog by telling me what you think. I promise not to perma-ban anyone for not simply regurgitating my own thoughts!*
*And, yes, Alexis, that is me tweaking your nose. And no, I did not discover your blog post by searching from "searching for a name" on Google to stir up some controversy in order to maintain readership. Your blog is still on my reading list because, despite the many posts about how everyone else sucks, you do occasionally have very interesting things to say.